Model de opțiuni reale în evaluarea afacerii
The WACC method determines model de opțiuni reale în evaluarea afacerii subject company's actual cost of capital by calculating the weighted average of the company's cost of debt and cost of equity.
The WACC must be applied to the subject company's net cash flow to total invested capital.
One of the problems with this method is that the valuator may elect to calculate WACC according to the subject company's existing capital structurethe average industry capital structureor the optimal capital structure. Such discretion detracts from the objectivity of this approach, in the minds of some critics. Indeed, since the WACC captures the risk of the subject business itself, the existing or contemplated capital structures, rather than industry averages, are the appropriate choices for business valuation.
Once the capitalization rate or discount rate is determined, it must be applied to model de opțiuni reale în evaluarea afacerii appropriate economic income stream: pretax cash flow, aftertax cash flow, pretax net incomeafter tax net income, excess earnings, projected unde poți câștiga bani cu adevărat flow, etc. The result of this formula is the indicated value before discounts.
Before moving on to calculate discounts, however, the valuation professional must consider the indicated value under the asset and market approaches. Careful matching of the discount rate to the appropriate measure of economic income is critical to the accuracy of the business valuation results.
Net cash flow is a frequent choice in professionally conducted business appraisals. The rationale behind this choice is that this earnings basis corresponds to the equity discount rate derived from the Build-Up or CAPM models: the returns obtained from investments in publicly traded companies can easily be represented in terms of net cash flows.
At the same time, the discount rates are generally also derived from the public capital markets data. Build-Up Method[ edit ] The Build-Up Method is a widely recognized method of determining the after-tax net cash flow discount rate, which in turn yields the capitalization rate. The figures used in the Build-Up Method are derived from various sources. This method is called a "build-up" method because it is the sum of risks associated with various classes of assets.
It is based on the principle that investors would require a greater return on classes of assets that are more risky. The first element of a Build-Up capitalization rate is the risk-free ratewhich is the rate of return for long-term government bonds. Investors who buy large-cap equity stockswhich are inherently more risky than long-term government bondsrequire a greater return, so the next element of the Build-Up method is the equity risk premium.
In determining a company's value, the long-horizon equity risk premium is used because the Company's model de opțiuni reale în evaluarea afacerii is assumed to be infinite.
The sum of the risk-free rate and the equity risk premium yields the long-term average market rate of return on large public company stocks. Similarly, investors who invest in small cap stockswhich are riskier than blue-chip stocksrequire a greater return, called the " size premium.
By adding the first three elements of a Build-Up discount rate, we can determine the rate of return that investors would require on their investments in small public company stocks.
These three elements of the Build-Up discount rate are known collectively as the " systematic risks. It arises from external factors and affect every type of investment in the economy.
As a result, investors taking systematic risk are rewarded by an additional premium. In addition to systematic risks, the discount rate must include " unsystematic risk " representing that portion of total investment risk that can be avoided through diversification.
Public capital markets do not provide evidence of unsystematic risk since sensul tuturor banilor pe care nu îi poți câștiga that fail to diversify cannot expect additional returns.
Unsystematic risk falls into two categories. One of those categories is the "industry risk premium". It is also known as idiosyncratic risk and can be observed by studying the returns of a group of companies operating in the same industry sector. Morningstar's yearbooks contain empirical data to quantify the risks model de opțiuni reale în evaluarea afacerii with various industries, grouped by SIC industry code. The other category of unsystematic risk is referred to as "company specific câștigurile din opțiunile bitcoin. However, as of latenew research has been able to quantify, or isolate, this risk for publicly traded stocks through the use of Total Beta calculations.
Butler and K. While it is possible to isolate the company-specific risk premium as shown above, many appraisers just key in on the total cost of equity TCOE provided by the first equation. It is similar to using the market approach in the income approach instead of adding separate and potentially redundant measures of risk in the build-up approach.
The use of total beta developed by Aswath Damodaran is a relatively new concept. It is, however, gaining acceptance in the business valuation Consultancy community since it is based on modern portfolio theory. Total beta can help appraisers develop a cost of capital who were content to use their intuition alone when previously adding a purely subjective company-specific risk premium in the build-up approach. It is important to understand why this capitalization rate for small, privately held companies is significantly higher than the return that an investor might expect to receive from other common types of investments, such as money market accounts, mutual funds, or even real estate.
Those investments involve substantially lower levels of risk than an investment in a closely held company. Depository accounts are insured by the federal government up to certain limits ; mutual funds are composed of publicly traded stocks, for which risk can be substantially minimized through portfolio diversification.
Closely held companieson the other hand, frequently fail for a variety of reasons too numerous to name. Examples of the risk can be witnessed in the storefronts on every Main Street in America. There are no federal guarantees. The risk of investing in a private company cannot be reduced through diversification, and most businesses do not own the type of hard assets that can ensure capital appreciation over time.
This is why investors demand a much higher return on their investment in closely held businesses; such investments are inherently much more risky.
This paragraph is biased, presuming that by the mere fact that a company is closely held, it is prone towards failure. Asset-based approaches[ edit ] In asset-based analysis the value of a business is equal to the sum of its parts.
That is the theory underlying the asset-based approaches to business valuation. The asset approach to business valuation reported on the books of the subject company at their acquisition value, net of depreciation where applicable.
These values must be adjusted to fair market value wherever possible. The value of a company's intangible assets, such as goodwill, is generally impossible to determine apart from the company's overall enterprise value. For this reason, the asset-based approach is not the most probative method of determining the value of going business concerns.
In these cases, the asset-based approach yields a result that is probably lesser than the fair market value of the business. In considering an asset-based approach, the valuation professional must consider whether the shareholder whose interest is being valued would have any authority to access the value of the assets directly.
Shareholders own shares in a corporation, but not its assets, which are owned by the corporation. A controlling shareholder may have the authority to direct the corporation to sell all or part of the assets it owns and to distribute the proceeds to the shareholder s.
The non-controlling shareholder, however, lacks this authority and cannot access the value of the assets.
Real options valuation
As a result, the value of a corporation's assets is not the true indicator of value to a shareholder who cannot avail himself of that value. The asset model de opțiuni reale în evaluarea afacerii approach is the entry barrier value and should preferably to be used in businesses having mature or declining growth cycle and is more suitable for capital intensive industry. Adjusted net book value may be the most relevant standard of value where liquidation is imminent or ongoing; where a company earnings or cash flow are nominal, strategii grafice ale opțiunilor binare or worth less than its assets; or where net book value is standard in the industry in which the company operates.
The adjusted net book value may also be used as a "sanity check" when compared to other methods of valuation, such as the income and market approaches Main article: Valuation using multiples The market approach to business valuation is rooted in the economic principle of competition: that in a free market the supply and demand forces will drive the price of business assets to a certain equilibrium.
Buyers would not pay more for the business, and the sellers will not accept less, than the price of a comparable business enterprise. The buyers and sellers are assumed to be equally well informed and acting in their own interests to conclude a transaction.
It is similar in many respects to the "comparable sales" method that is commonly used in real estate appraisal. The market price of the stocks of publicly traded companies engaged in the same or a similar line of business, whose shares are actively traded in a free and open market, can be a valid indicator of value when the transactions in which stocks are traded are sufficiently similar to permit meaningful comparison.
The difficulty lies in identifying public companies that are sufficiently comparable to the subject company for this purpose. Also, as for a private companythe equity is less liquid in other words its stocks are less easy to buy or sell than for a public companyits value is considered to be slightly lower than such a market-based valuation would give.
When there is a lack of comparison with direct competition, a meaningful alternative could be a vertical value-chain approach where the subject company is compared with, for example, a known downstream industry to have a good feel of its value by building useful correlations with its downstream companies.
Such comparison often reveals useful insights which help business analysts better understand performance relationship between the subject company and its downstream industry. For example, if a growing subject company is in an industry more concentrated than its downstream industry with a high degree of interdependence, one should logically expect the subject company performs better than the downstream industry in terms of growth, margins and risk.
Guideline Public Company method[ edit ] Guideline Public Company method entails a comparison of the subject company to publicly traded companies. The comparison is generally based on published data regarding the public companies' stock price and earnings, sales, or revenues, which is expressed as a fraction known as a "multiple.
The public companies identified for comparison purposes should be similar to the subject company in terms of industry, product lines, market, growth, margins and risk. However, if the subject company is privately owned, its value must be adjusted for lack of marketability.
This is usually represented by a discount, or a percentage reduction in the value of the company when compared to its publicly traded counterparts. This reflects the higher risk associated with holding stock in a private company. The difference in value can be quantified by applying a discount for lack of marketability.
This discount is determined by studying prices paid for shares of ownership in private companies that eventually offer their stock in a public offering.
Alternatively, the lack of marketability can be assessed by comparing the prices paid for restricted shares to fully marketable shares of stock of public companies. Option pricing approaches[ edit ] As abovein certain cases equity may be valued by applying the techniques and frameworks developed for financial optionsvia a real options framework.
In general, equity may be viewed as a call option on the firm,  and this allows for the valuation of troubled firms which may otherwise be difficult to analyse.
Of course, where firm value is greater than debt value, the shareholders would choose to repay i. Thus analogous to out the money options which nevertheless have value, equity will may have value even if the value of the firm falls well below the face value of the outstanding debt—and this value can should be determined using the appropriate option valuation technique.
See also Merton model. A further application of this principle is the analysis of principal—agent problems ;  see contract design under principal—agent problem.